Comparing the current short-term cancer incidence prediction models in Brazil with state-of-the-art time-series models.

The World Health Organization has highlighted that cancer was the second-highest cause of death in 2019. This research aims to present the current forecasting techniques found in the literature, applied to predict time-series cancer incidence and then, compare these results with the current methodology adopted by the Instituto Nacional do Câncer (INCA) in Brazil. A set of univariate time-series approaches is proposed to aid decision-makers in monitoring and organizing cancer prevention and control actions. Additionally, this can guide oncological research towards more accurate estimates that align with the expected demand. Forecasting techniques were applied to real data from seven types of cancer in a Brazilian district. Each method was evaluated by comparing its fit with real data using the root mean square error, and we also assessed the quality of noise to identify biased models. Notably, three methods proposed in this research have never been applied to cancer prediction before. The data were collected from the INCA website, and the forecast methods were implemented using the R language. Conducting a literature review, it was possible to draw comparisons previous works worldwide to illustrate that cancer prediction is often focused on breast and lung cancers, typically utilizing a limited number of time-series models to find the best fit for each case. Additionally, in comparison to the current method applied in Brazil, it has been shown that employing more generalized forecast techniques can provide more reliable predictions. By evaluating the noise in the current method, this research shown that the existing prediction model is biased toward two of the studied cancers Comparing error results between the mentioned approaches and the current technique, it has been shown that the current method applied by INCA underperforms in six out of seven types of cancer tested. Moreover, this research identified that the current method can produce a biased prediction for two of the seven cancers evaluated. Therefore, it is suggested that the methods evaluated in this work should be integrated into the INCA cancer forecast methodology to provide reliable predictions for Brazilian healthcare professionals, decision-makers, and oncological researchers.

May value-based healthcare practices contribute to comprehensive care for cancer patients? A systematic literature review.

BACKGROUND: The cancer incidence and mortality have increased both due to aging and population growth. There is an imbalance between this increasing incidence, the costs and the available budget. It highlights the importance of a value-based healthcare (VBHC) agenda, where value is what matters to patients, represented by outcomes over costs. OBJECTIVE: To identify how VBHC has been discussed in the context of cancer care and which practices could contribute to project value-based cancer care models. METHOD: This article conducted a Systematic Literature Review (SLR) on SCOPUS (n = 168 results) and PubMed (n = 222), between 1995 and 2020, using PRISMA Protocol; and analyzed the results through VOSviewer and Bibliometrix in R, in addition to qualitative analysis for classification of practices. RESULTS: The main themes were 'Costs' (34%), 'Outcomes' (24%), 'VBHC agenda' (24%), 'models of care' (18%). 19 practices were identified and classified into 5 categories of operations: process technology and patient pathway, information and systems management, patient care scheduling and monitoring, performance measurement and quality management and network and integration. CONCLUSION: The SLR points to the absence of a value-based care model for cancer patients, but the adherence to elements of the value agenda is an issue and currently a challenge. Costs are the main concerns, although this research does not identify significant structural changes. This research contributes to highlighting the gaps between theory and practice and it can be used as an input for designing value-based care services for cancer patients, as it synthesizes current practices and the main premises for implementing value agenda.

Improving emergency department resource planning: a multiple case study.

Sizing and allocating health-care professionals are a critical problem in the management of emergency departments (EDs) managed by a public company in Rio de Janeiro (Brazil). An efficient ED configuration that is cost and time effective must be developed by this company for hospital managers. In this paper, the problem of health-care professional configurations in EDs is modelled to minimise the total labour cost while satisfying patient queues and waiting times as defined by the actual ED capacity and current clinical protocols. To solve this issue, mixed integer linear programming (MILP) that allocates health-care professionals and specifies the amount of professionals who must be hired is proposed. To consider the uncertainties in this environment and evaluate their impacts, a discrete-event simulation model is developed to reflect patient flow. An optimisation and simulation approach is used to search for efficiency leads for different ED configurations. These configurations change depending on the shift and the day of the week.

Efeitos da experiência no processo decisório: uma investigação a partir dos elementos da cognição / Experience effects in decision-making: a study from the cogniti on elements

Dentre os aspectos que conformam a cognição humana e, portanto, o comportamento observado nas escolhas, está a experiência do indivíduo. Pesquisas apontam a experiência desempenhando tanto papéis positivos quanto negativos na tomada de decisão. Motivado pela pergunta “Qual é o papel da experiência na tomada de decisão?”, este texto buscou verificar de que forma o estado da arte e da técnica das Ciências Cognitivas poderiam contribuir com o melhor entendimento do processamento cognitivo dos humanos no contexto da tomada de decisão. Adotou-se como partida a exposição estruturada dos papéis dos elementos da cognição durante o processo decisório, conforme proposta de Spiegel (2014). Investigou-se através de uma revisão sistemática da literatura os impactos da experiência do decisor na manifestação da atenção, categorização, memória e emoção. Como resultado são apresentadas 17 inferências que mostram qual o papel da experiência na tomada de decisão, e de forma mais aprofundada, quais as implicações da experiência no processo cognitivo do decisor (AU)

Among the aspects that make human cognition and the behavior observed in the choices is the experience of the individual. Surveys show experience playing both positive and negative roles in decision making. Motivated by the question “What is the role of experience in decision-making?”, this text aims to evaluate how the state of the art and technique of Cognitive Sciences could contribute to a better understanding of human cognitive processing in the context of decision-making. As a starting, it was adopted a structure of the roles of cognitive elements during the decision-making process, as proposed by Spiegel (2014). Investigated through a systematic literature review the impacts of the decision maker’s experience in the manifestation of attention, categorization, memory and emotion. As a result are presented 17 inferences about the role of experience in decision-making, and in more detail, the implications of experience in the cognitive process of decision-making (AU)

Efeitos da experiência no processo decisório: uma investigação a partir dos elementos da cognição / Experience effects in decision-making: a study from the cogniti on elements

Dentre os aspectos que conformam a cognição humana e, portanto, o comportamento observado nas escolhas, está a experiência do indivíduo. Pesquisas apontam a experiência desempenhando tanto papéis positivos quanto negativos na tomada de decisão. Motivado pela pergunta "Qual é o papel da experiência na tomada de decisão?", este texto buscou verificar de que forma o estado da arte e da técnica das Ciências Cognitivas poderiam contribuir com o melhor entendimento do processamento cognitivo dos humanos no contexto da tomada de decisão. Adotou-se como partida a exposição estruturada dos papéis dos elementos da cognição durante o processo decisório, conforme proposta de Spiegel (2014). Investigou-se através de uma revisão sistemática da literatura os impactos da experiência do decisor na manifestação da atenção, categorização, memória e emoção. Como resultado são apresentadas 17 inferências que mostram qual o papel da experiência na tomada de decisão, e de forma mais aprofundada, quais as implicações da experiência no processo cognitivo do decisor

Among the aspects that make human cognition and the behavior observed in the choices is the experience of the individual. Surveys show experience playing both positive and negative roles in decision making. Motivated by the question "What is the role of experience in decision-making?", this text aims to evaluate how the state of the art and technique of Cognitive Sciences could contribute to a better understanding of human cognitive processing in the context of decision-making. As a starting, it was adopted a structure of the roles of cognitive elements during the decision-making process, as proposed by Spiegel (2014). Investigated through a systematic literature review the impacts of the decision maker's experience in the manifestation of attention, categorization, memory and emotion. As a result are presented 17 inferences about the role of experience in decision-making, and in more detail, the implications of experience in the cognitive process of decision-making

A tomada de decisão diante da racionalidade limitada: revisão da literatura / Decision-making in the face of bounded rationality: a literaturereview

O estudo da tomada de decisão tem uma longa história que abrange uma variedade de perspectivas e posições filosóficas, em meio a muita controvérsia. No desenvolvimento das abordagens descritivas, aproximou-se de como decisões são tomadas, a partir de diferentes perspectivas, com ênfase no comportamento humano, no desempenho organizacional etc.O presente trabalho, de cunho expositivo,baseia-se na premissa de que para entender“completamente” e melhorar a tomada de decisão, os processos cognitivos subjacentes ao decisor devem ser examinados. Diante desta perspectiva da centralidade, ou no mínimo dar elevância, do processamento de informações por humanos, e da ausência de literatura nacional que cumpra este papel, e da dispersão da mesma em textos internacionais, este artigo faz uma revisão da literatura e apresenta uma síntese dos quadros teóricos que lidam com o objeto diante da ideia da racionalidade limitada. A saber:heurísticas e vieses, heurísticas rápidas e frugais,processamento dual, modelos cognitivos, framinge sensemaking.

The study of decision making has a long history that encompasses a variety of perspectives and philosophical positions, amid much controversy. In the development of descriptive approaches, approximating how decisions are actually taken, from different perspectives, with emphasis on human behavior, organizational performance etc. This work was expositive, based on the premise that to understand “completely” and to improve the decision making, cognitive processes underlying the decision-maker should be examined. Given the centrality of this perspective, or at least the relevance of informationprocessing in humans, and the absence of national literature that fulfills this role, and the dispersingof theme in international text, this articlemakes a literature review and provides an overview of theoretical frameworks that deal with the object before the notion of bounded rationality. Namely: heuristics and biases, fast and frugal heuristics, dual processing, cognitive models, framing and sensemaking.

A tomada de decisão diante da racionalidade limitada: revisão da literatura / Decision-making in the face of bounded rationality: a literaturereview

O estudo da tomada de decisão tem uma longa história que abrange uma variedade de perspectivas e posições filosóficas, em meio a muita controvérsia. No desenvolvimento das abordagens descritivas, aproximou-se de como decisões são tomadas, a partir de diferentes perspectivas, com ênfase no comportamento humano, no desempenho organizacional etc.O presente trabalho, de cunho expositivo,baseia-se na premissa de que para entender“completamente” e melhorar a tomada de decisão, os processos cognitivos subjacentes ao decisor devem ser examinados. Diante desta perspectiva da centralidade, ou no mínimo dar elevância, do processamento de informações por humanos, e da ausência de literatura nacional que cumpra este papel, e da dispersão da mesma em textos internacionais, este artigo faz uma revisão da literatura e apresenta uma síntese dos quadros teóricos que lidam com o objeto diante da ideia da racionalidade limitada. A saber:heurísticas e vieses, heurísticas rápidas e frugais,processamento dual, modelos cognitivos, framinge sensemaking.

A necessidade de contribuições da ciência cognitiva para o aumento da produtividade do trabalho humano nas organizações / The need for contributions of cognitive science for increase the productivity of human work in organizations

Este ensaio foi motivado pela percepção de uma tendência de aumento da importância do trabalho cognitivo nas organizações. Assim, a partir da perspectiva de se buscar o aumento de produtividade do trabalho amplamente debatida nas áreas de conhecimento da Engenharia de Produção, Administração de Empresas e correlatas; este texto sugere que há limitações teóricas e práticas nessas áreas para lidar corretamente com o trabalho cognitivo. Estas limitações, possíveis indícios da necessidade de revoluções científicas sugeridas por Kuhn, clamam por novos métodos para analisar, projetar e avaliar essa natureza de trabalho. Argumenta-se que resultados comprovadamente melhores de aumento de produtividade passariam pelo desenvolvimento de novos métodos e ferramentas adequadas ao trabalho cognitivo, e não da adaptação dos métodos tradicionais. Por fim, indica-se a importância de contribuições dos corpos teóricos da Ciência Cognitiva na lacuna identificada em projetos de pesquisa multidisciplinares(AU).

This essay was motivated by a perceived trend of the rising relevance of cognitive work in organizations. Adopting the perspective of increasing productivity in organizations, widely discussed in Production Engineering, Management and related areas, this text argues that there areas have several theoretical and practical limitations to deal properly with cognitive work as a research object. These limits, what Khun could consider clues for the need of scientific revolutions, seem to claim for new methods to analyze, design and evaluate this kind of work. We suggest that to achieve raisings of productivity should deal with developing new techniques and methods to consider cognitive work, instead of adapting traditional methods. Finally, it's pointed out that Cognitive Science theoretical framework is fundamental to this issue. (AU)